A new study published in The Lancet, as part of the 8th annual report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, projects a fivefold increase in yearly heat-related deaths if global temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. The analysis involves 114 leading experts from 52 institutions and UN agencies, emphasizing the urgent need for swift and substantial climate action to prevent catastrophic consequences for health and survival.
The study highlights the potential 370% increase in heat-related deaths by mid-century if the 2°C temperature rise occurs, posing a significant threat to the well-being of billions worldwide. The Lancet Countdown report underscores the inadequacy of current mitigation efforts, urging a more rapid reduction in emissions to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C.
Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London, emphasizes the immediate cost of climate change on lives and livelihoods globally. The report reveals the alarming impact of a 2°C warmer world, stressing that mitigation efforts thus far have fallen short, emitting 1,337 tonnes of carbon dioxide every second.
The study, released ahead of the 28th UN Conference of the Parties (COP), provides 47 indicators, including metrics on household air pollution, fossil fuel financing, and international organizations’ engagement in health co-benefits of climate mitigation. It signals a critical opportunity at COP28 to secure commitments and actions for an equitable phase-out of fossil fuels, accelerated mitigation, and support for health-focused adaptation efforts.
Despite the current 1.14°C global heating, the report highlights the substantial impact on health, with people experiencing 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures on average in 2018-2022. This heating has intensified heat-related deaths among individuals aged over 65, rising by 85% in 2013-2022 compared to 1991-2000.
Changing weather patterns contribute to more frequent heatwaves, droughts, and the spread of infectious diseases. The study notes a surge in moderate to severe food insecurity, affecting 127 million more people in 2021 compared to the annual average between 1981 and 2010.
The economic toll of extreme weather events reached an estimated $264 billion in 2022, marking a 23% increase from 2010-2014. Heat exposure led to a loss of 490 billion potential labor hours globally in 2022, with disproportionate impacts on low- and middle-income countries.
The Lancet Countdown report underscores the crisis within a crisis, highlighting the disproportionate burden on poorer nations facing health impacts while lacking the resources to cope. The study emphasizes the urgency of global cooperation to ensure a fair and equitable transition to a healthier future.
Sources By Agencies
