The United Nations released a groundbreaking report titled “World Population Prospects 2024,” projecting Earth’s population to reach a peak of 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s before gradually declining. This prediction marks a significant departure from previous estimates, suggesting a more moderate growth trajectory for the global population.
Currently standing at 8.2 billion, the world’s population is expected to rise steadily over the next six decades, reaching its zenith at 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. However, by the end of the century, the population is forecasted to dip slightly to 10.2 billion, reflecting unexpected declines in fertility rates in several major countries, notably China.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” remarked Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, highlighting the factors influencing this revised forecast. These factors include lower fertility rates in key nations, contributing to an earlier and lower population peak than previously anticipated.
While this projected decline in population growth offers hopeful prospects for environmental sustainability—reducing overall consumption and pressure on natural resources—it does not alleviate the need for individual-level efforts to mitigate environmental impact.
The report also identifies a trend towards population stabilization in various regions. Currently, more than a quarter of the global population resides in countries where populations have already peaked, such as China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. Over the next three decades, an additional 50 countries, including Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, are expected to reach similar population peaks.
However, population growth will persist beyond 2054 in over 120 countries, driven primarily by countries like India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States.
In terms of demographic shifts, the report underscores a global increase in life expectancy, despite setbacks like the COVID-19 pandemic. Average life expectancy, which stands at 73.3 years in 2024, is projected to rise to 77.4 years by 2054, contributing to a progressively aging global population. By the late 2070s, individuals aged 65 and older are expected to outnumber those under 18, marking a significant demographic milestone.
Sources By Agencies
